Betting on Weather

Large amounts of money are lost each season by sports bettors who do
not fully understand how to account for weather in their sports
handicapping. Extreme weather presents the player with two types of
profitable opportunities:

1) to play ON a condition that will have MORE effect than the public realizes;

2) to play OPPOSITE a condition that will have LESS effect than the public realizes.

Whenever we judge any effect on a game we must determine to what
degree the effect has already been accounted for in the point spread.
An obvious example would be if a team’s starting quarterback is out
due to injury. Such a fact would most certainly be built into the point
spread, so blindly betting against a team playing a backup QB offers no
edge. This same obviousness would apply to playing the under on a
football game when a bad weather is expected. In these cases, as
always, a sports handicapper must compare his assessment of the effect
with the way it is accounted for in the point spread. Only when there
is a discrepancy in assessment can there be a true edge.

The most over-considered weather condition is snow. Being easy to
see on TV and easy to understand (we’ve all walked on slippery
sidewalks) makes snow hard to ignore. Such conditions are typically
associated with lower scoring. But in reality snow has little effect on
game-play a vast majority of the time. Constantly improving grass/turf
fields, footballs made of advanced synthetics, and the perpetual
rotation & sideline maintenance (keeping them dry and warm) of
those same balls has significantly diminished in recent years the
effect of snow on game-play.

In fact, often the effect that does exist is to the advantage of the
offense! Why? Because on a slightly slick field the offense knows where
it is running to while the defense is force to react abruptly. If a
receiver slips the offense may lose one play; if a defender slips the
offense can easily score a touchdown. Since defenses want to attack
rather than react on a slick field they become more aggressive, causing
(and, in turn, giving up) more big plays. Snow presents the sports
handicapper with game conditions the public believes will lead to low
scoring when in reality the opposite is true.

Extreme snow, though, is another matter to consider. A few games per
year are affected by snow to such an extent that normal game-play is
impossible. The simple act of dropping back to pass is too dangerous to
attempt. Kicking a 30 yard field goal is an iffy proposition. In these
rare cases the under is often the play simply because the point spread
cannot be adjusted downward enough (Imagine a total of 17.5 on a NFL
game). Also keep in mind in any low scoring game a big underdog gains
value.

The most under-considered weather condition is wind. You can’t see
it on TV, but it can affect game-play in extreme ways. Today’s 21st
century passing games are based upon timing, and when the wind is
blowing hard timing can’t help but be thrown off. The following is a
little known fact: wind that blows ACROSS THE FIELD affects play much
more than wind that blows from end zone to end zone. This is because on
passes and especially field goals wind is harder to compensate for when
blowing side-to-side. (And even lesser known fact is that over 90% of
football fields are set up with the end zones directed north to south;
so, though it would be best to learn about each field individually, you
will be correct most the time if you assume north/south wind will be
blowing from end zone to end zone while east/west will be cross-field).
Note that windy conditions affect all teams, but even more so teams
that rely on the passing game. Wind, then, presents the sports
handicapper with conditions that will tend toward low scoring, tend
toward the underdog, and tend against passing teams while most likely
not being properly accounted for in the point spread.

Extreme temperatures must also be considered. Cold weather football
teams playing in high heat occurs most often early in the season; the
effect is typically one of fatigue. A wise (and creative) play for the
sports handicapper would be to consider playing against the cold
weather football team in the second half.

Warm weather football teams playing in the cold seem to have even
more trouble. Ultimately it comes down to what a football team’s
players are used to. The effect of cold weather on warm weather
football teams is well documented; one only needs consider the stats on
the Packers at home or Tampa Bay in the cold. These well-known
situations rarely offer value. The sports handicapper MUST ALWAYS
assess the effect while considering how the line is accounting for it.

The most valuable information (and the type many players dream
about) is knowing something most people don’t. Finding out before the
lines maker that there will be 3 feet of snow in Buffalo next Sunday
would make winning easy. Realistically, though, in today’s Internet
age such a scoop in nearly impossible to come by. What is not
impossible, and what can be equally as profitable, is the ability to
find weather situations the point spread has overcompensated for to
play against while finding others the point spread has under
compensated for to play on.