Converting NFL Point Spreads To Money Lines

Using historical NFL margin of victory data you can approximate fair money line odds for a given NFL point spread, and this article provides you with a method for doing just that.

It is worth noting, however, that because of the fact that some point spreads are worth more than others, the money line you derive using the formula below must be entered
into an NFL point spread calculator to calculate the fair point spread odds for that specific money line.

As a quick reference you can use this point spread to money line conversion chart. This chart provides you with a list of various point spread odds and their associated money line odds.

Also, checkout the NFL point spread to money line converter to perform these calculations for you.

Understanding the Historical Margin of Victory Data

The first step to converting an NFL point spread to a money line is to
use historical data to understand the relationship between the margin
of victory and the team's probability of winning the game.

To derive the relationship between margin of victory and
probability of winning you must know two things: 1) the probability of
the home team winning and 2) the average margin of victory.

Using 10 years of NFL regular season data from the 1997 to 2006 seasons, this information can be derived as follows:

During this time period, ignoring ties, home teams won 58.22% by an average margin of victory of 2.7 points.

To derive the point spread to money line conversion formula we
can use 58.22% as the probability of the home team winning, but we
can't use an average margin of victory of 2.7 points. This is because
2.7 isn't the number that evenly divides 50% of the probabilities of
the distribution, which is what we must use to perform the calculation.

Based on the data, the true number that evenly divides 50% of
the probabilities is 2.43722, so this is what we will use to convert
point spreads to money lines.

Deriving the Conversion Factor

So far we know that 58.22% represents the probability of the
home team winning, and 2.43722 represents the true average margin of
victory. Using this data we can now calculate the conversion factor that will be used to convert point spreads to money lines.

Because we know the true mean is 2.43722 and winning percentage is
58.22%, the equation for calculating the conversion factor can be setup
as follows:

Solving for the conversion factor in this equation we obtain:

Using this conversion factor we can now obtain formulas for
converting a point spread to a money line and for converting a money
line to a point spread.

Point Spread to Money Line Conversion Formula

With a conversion factor of 29.64988, the formula for converting a point spread to a money line is:

Note: You should ensure that the minimum and maximum winning
percentages calculated with this formula are 0% and 100%, respectively.
Percentages below 0% or above 100% indicate an unfair point spread, so
you should instead use 0% or 100% as the fair winning percentage. Also,
a negative point spread indicates the team is an underdog.

After using this formula to calculate a fair winning percentage you can then convert this percentage to a money line using a money line converter.

Money Line to Point Spread Conversion Formula

To convert a money line to a point spread you must first use a money line converter
to convert the money line to a winning percentage. With the winning
percentage in hand, you can use the following formula to calculate the
point spread:

Note: This formula assumes that the winning percentage is
represented as a number from 0 to 1. Also, a negative result indicates
the team is an underdog.

This point spread value can then be rounded to the fair point
spread value. For example, you use this formula and calculate a point
spread value of 4.21. This value is closer to 4 than it is to 4.5, so
you can say the fair point spread is 4.

Factoring in Key Point Spreads

Because of the key NFL point spreads, you will need to use an
NFL point spread calculator to calculate the fair point spread odds for the point spread value obtained from the formula above.

See the point spread to money line conversion chart for a quick reference to these fair odds.

Summary

Using the formulas provided in this article you should now be
able to convert a point spread to a money line, and vice-versa, for any
NFL football game.

While doing some research on the internet, we noticed that there are quite a few sports bettors out there searching for parlay cards. We thought we'd take the time to answer your question as well as possibly help you out with some other great information as well.

There are no printable parlay cards, you pretty much have to sign up at a sportsbook, log in and print off a page from there. (ThePig is a great place to do so.)

If you've fallen onto this page looking for a place to bet parlay cards online, there's some interesting information we'd like to tell you about that may change the way you bet your pars from now on!

As you may know, when you bet a parlay there's fixed odds that look something like this (some books fluctuate a bit but this is the norm:)

2 Team Parlay: 13-5 odds
3 Team Parlay: 6-1
4 Team Parlay: 10-1
5 Team Parlay: 20 to 1
6 Team Parlay: 40 to 1
7 Team Parlay: 75-1
8 Team Parlay: 100-1
9 Team Parlay: 150-1
10 Team Parlay: 300-1
11 Team Parlay: 450-1
12 Team Parlay: 600-1 Odds
13 Team Parlay: 750-1
14 Team Parlay: 900-1
15 Team Parley: 1500-1

Now the good news! You can get increased parlay odds when you place those wagers on Friday's at MySportsbook!

Check out these great odds that simply pay more on your football and basketball parlays:

Parlays	Our Book	Our Friday Special	Book A	Book B	Book C
2 Teams	13/5	2.8/1	13/5	13/5	13/5
3 Teams	6/1	6.4/1	6/1	6/1	6/1
4 Teams	10/1	13.5/1	10/1	10/1	10/1
5 Teams	25/1	27/1	25/1	25/1	20/1
6 Teams	40/1	54/1	35/1	40/1	40/1
7 Teams	75/1	107/1	75/1	60/1	80/1
8 Teams	150/1	210/1	100/1	100/1	100/1
9 Teams	300/1	411/1	150/1	200/1	N/O
10 Teams	700/1	804/1	300/1	400/1	N/O
11 Teams	1,100/1	1,570/1	450/1	N/O	N/O
12 Teams	1,800/1	3,066/1	600/1	N/O	N/O

Remember! You have to bet them on Friday's in order to take advantage of the special odds!

Tired of picking "almost all of them" right and losing by one or two games each week? Check this out! MySportsbook also offers "progressive parlays" which allow you to have some losses in the bet and the wager still pays out as a winner! Check out the following grid to view the payouts!

	All Teams Won	1 Team Loss	2 Teams Loss	3 Teams lose
4 Teams	5/1	1/1	--	--
5 Teams	11/1	2/1	--	--
6 Teams	20/1	9/2	--	--
7 Teams	40/1	4/1	1/2	--
8 Teams	75/1	10/1	2/1	--
9 Teams	150/1	20/1	5/2	--
10 Teams	250/1	25/1	3/1	1/1
11 Teams	400/1	60/1	5/1	1/1
12 Teams	900/1	80/1	10/1	3/1

That's right! You can bet a 12 team parlay and lose three games and still turn out a nice profit which blows away standard parlay card rules where one loss means your card is a loser.

Before we go, we'd also like to answer some related questions that we get from time to time.

Q: What happens if one of my games in a two teamer ties (pushes)? The two team reverts to a single game wager at -110 odds. If your sportsbook calls it no action or a loser, you need to change books!

Q: What happens if my ten team parlay has a push in it? The bet simply reverts to a 9 team parlay at nine team odds. If for some reason the bet was to have 2 pushes, it would revert to 2 teams less and assume the payout for that many games.

Q: What's the most I can win on a parlay? Many online bookies have a $100,000 maximum win amount set for any wager, regardless of what type of bet it is. You can find this in the fine print at many books as it's the standard.

Parlays are also known as an "accumulator" bet. They are also commonly misspelled as "parleys".

If MySportsbook doesn't suit your fancy and your in the market to add another sportsbook to your sports betting arsenal, be sure to check out our sportsbooks page where your sure to find MANY good books!

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Saturday, January 17, 2009